I really like reading “end-of-year-predictions” for the next year to come. It is just like music charts (that I’m also a great fan of) but of the future to come.
I thought since I have my own blog now, it could be a great opportunity to share my thoughts regarding 2011!
The only problem with that, is that 2011 will eventually arrive, and moreover, end some day (well, actually end on a very particular day – 31.12.11), and then we will have to check which predictions were accurate and which were not… The Hebrew Talmud says that prophecy is given either by fools or babies… Since I know for sure that age-wise I’m not considered to be a baby, I will probably have to find myself a comfortable sit in the other camp.
Anyways, I promise to come back next year and check what happened, and after this very very long disclaimer here are my predictions for 2011:
1. Social TV will become more and more popular:
There’s already too much to content to choose from. So many TV series, sports events, movies, live events, documentaries and so limited time. We cannot afford this meaningless zapping any more. We will look for tools which will be based on our friends recommendations (such as this one) which will allow us to make better choices regarding how we spent our leisure time. The two most dominant players will be Facebook and Twitter (do stop by and say hello!)
Facebook on Verizon Fios - more social TV is coming this year
2. TV will not remain the only autocrat at the house:
The huge growth in the tablet market as well as the enormous growth in video phones sales in selling new smart phones, will have a major impact on video consumption. During 2011, I expect that we will start consuming video at home using other devices. The vision of the entire family gathering around the TV is soon to disappear from this world. The notion is that we are constantly using our own personal to consume video (i.e. tablets and HD phones) as a replacement for TV. Moreover a new research is suggesting the iPad users are more likely to disconnect from their cable subscriptions.
More screens in our living room
3. Multitasking will become second nature to us:
Another aspect of having more and more tablets and mobile devices around us will increase the accessibility of internet in the living room… Since TV is not enough for most of us, we started this year to browse the net and watch TV simultaneously. Beside the fact that it will surely cause us with severe attention deficit disorder (ADD), it is definitely the future for of the following years to come. Nielsen published a report The 59% of those surveyed using TV and internet at the same time. The amount of time spent using them together has increased 35% in a year, up to an average 3 hours 30 minutes a month. I believe it to become the common practice during this year. P&G (a company which I totally ban for its cruel animal testing!), have announced that it will focus on multitasking advertising.
Multitasking is coming to your screen
(photo by nicholasjbriscoe)
4. Connected TVs will become very popular but the usage rate of the widgets will remain very low:
One of the biggest trends this year was the new connected-TVs. These TVs made up 21% of all television sales in 2010, and are expected to more than double by 2014!
I guess that reason for this hysteria is the fact that people are eager to be connected. But (and this is a big but), I don’t find it a killer app at all (update: nor do CNN). These apps require the viewer to change the TV source from the cable box and move to the app section within the TV. It is a bit like having two users on the same computer and switching between them while watching TV – no one enjoys doing that. Therefore, my prediction that these devices will become popular once they fully replace the operators.
Samsung TV Apps - not particularly interesting the audience
5. Netflix, Hulu and other content aggregators will continue to gain more power and viewing minutes:
Unlike the connected devices, the huge appetite for on-demand content is already a reality today. Apple rents about 475,000 TV shows and movies daily, while Netflix handles 5.1 million rentals each day(!!!), split almost evenly between DVD rentals and instant viewing via streaming. Hulu made a record in November of 1.1 billion ad impressions!
This trend will grow dramatically in 2011 as more devices which enable streaming are introduced to the market – TVs with internet connectivity (boxee, roku, apple tv etc.), tablets, notebooks and new mobile phones with HD capability.
6. Google TV, Apple TV, RoKu and Boxee will not gain the expected popularity:
Despite the growth in the variety of boxes, all boxes will not become a massive success during 2011. There are several reasons for that – content agreements are not allowing to disconnect from operators yet, no support in live TV, most of the boxes are too complex to use and not open to 3rd party developers. Until someone will be able to provide a true cord-cutting box, this reality shall not change.
Netflix will gain more popularity in 2011
7. Cord Cutting will become a broad phenomenon:
With more and more content available on the internet, and with much more reasonable pricing models such as “all you can eat” by Netflix for $7.99 why paying 49.99 to Comcast?!
Live digital terrestrial broadcast channels continue to have a better coverage with the support of governments worldwide. Together with a good on-demand proposition, there is basically no need to pay so much for operators. I assume that during 2011 will figure that out.
Cord Cutting - try it at home!
Albert Einstein said once that he doesn’t think of the future as it comes too fast… So in 363 days we will all see if the future is here or will we have to wait for 2012.
Happy New Year!
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